Murray trades: schedule bet, not now
9d agoNot now: most of the gain is Denver's playoff-week schedule, and Yeet likely says no.
Details
💬 0
No discussion yet.
Loading inbox…
Approve = your yes; the next daily run executes it after re-checking Yahoo.
Nothing needs your yes right now.
Not now: most of the gain is Denver's playoff-week schedule, and Yeet likely says no.
No discussion yet.
Raises this week's win odds by ~4 pp (we trail 3-6); no measurable season effect either way.
Approval expired Oct 29, 8:55 PM · “expired without a decision”
lineup agent ≠ model chose {"reed-sheppard":"IL"} (model: {"plan":"lp-2026-10-29-8bea3ce4b468","changes":[{"reed-sheppard":"PG->IL"}]})
lineup agent ≠ model chose {"changes":"Clingan BN->C, Jokic C->BN, Fears BN->Util, Ware Util->BN"} (model: {"se":0.0035,"plan":"lp-2026-10-29-e0ec70004af2","p_win_mc":0.4655})
No discussion yet.
Approval expired Oct 29, 6:31 PM · “expired without a decision”
requested Oct 29, 7:27 AMapr-2d5b6d621f364ed395828f33770ce19a
No discussion yet.
Re-checked on today's projections: dropping Bailey costs ~2.9 pp of playoff odds, dropping Fears ~0.
Approval approved Oct 26, 8:25 AM
No discussion yet.
Approval approved Oct 27, 8:24 AM
requested Oct 27, 7:33 AMapr-226d906ed1554597b706bd3a7b15cdb1
No discussion yet.
Re-checked on today's projections: dropping Bailey costs ~2.9 pp of playoff odds, dropping Fears ~0.
No discussion yet.
Podziemski on IL opened a spot, so Champagnie can play tonight (8 PM ET @DAL) and Bailey still plays Sunday.
Approval approved Oct 24, 11:18 AM
No discussion yet.
Approval approved Oct 24, 11:18 AM
requested Oct 24, 10:47 AMapr-e266dbef6e884ddca1936226f022bf24
No discussion yet.
Only add/drop that helps under both projection sets after today's model fixes.
Approval approved Oct 23, 10:51 PM
No discussion yet.
Approval approved Oct 23, 11:18 PM
requested Oct 23, 11:00 PMapr-771da9487a684cebb0adfefdc2174dc5
No discussion yet.
Approval approved Oct 23, 10:57 PM
requested Oct 23, 10:52 PMapr-b61cc6171de34c148a2dd19793d935c4
No discussion yet.
Small but consistent gain in both projection sets.
Approval expired Oct 22, 9:54 PM · “expired without a decision”
Recommended: helps under all three projection sets.
Approval expired Oct 21, 7:00 PM · “expired without a decision”
Strong yes: helps under all three projection sets, also schedule-neutral.
Approval rejected Oct 21, 7:03 PM
No discussion yet.
Worth offering: helps under all three projection sets.
Approval rejected Oct 21, 7:03 PM
No discussion yet.
Keep the roster as is in week 1.
No discussion yet.
Yahoo already equals target_slots for 10-21; 10-22..10-25 active players with games all started (server re-read)
helps in all 3 projection sets (title +5.9/+8.9/+7.0 pp) and schedule-neutral (+1.8 pp); needs user yes
User reported clicking Start Active; re-read all week days: starters already match optimizer targets. Only change: Podziemski O -> IL (pre-authorised).
lineup-0.2.0: today matches Yahoo; 10-21 already set (same starters); 10-22 only Jokic plays -> set in advance
Brunson/Jokic have no game Wed; Podziemski Q (p_play prior 0.5) benched, re-check before GSW tip 10pm ET
recommendations[0] (value_search ok)
deviation: guard rule (user, picks 108+) - took top-5 #1 guard over recommendations[0] DeMar DeRozan; roster has 1 true guard; daily lineup crunch not modelled
recommendations[0] (value_search ok)
recommendations[0] (value_search ok)
recommendations[0] (value_search ok)
recommendations[0] (value_search ok)
recommendations[0] (value_search ok)
recommendations[0] (value_search ok)
recommendations[0] (value_search ok)
deviates from recommendations[0] (Bane 5.629, p_next 0.16): top-5 within 0.022 = tie; protocol tie-break prefers lower prob_available_next -> Kawhi 5.633, p_next 0.003
recommendations[0] (back-to-back 36/37)
recommendations[0] (value_search); top-5 within 0.02, lowest p_next 0.063
recommendations[0]; margin 0.064 over Wembanyama